甘肃科学学报

利用1980—2022年河北省夏玉米、冬小麦产量数据以及同期河北省气象灾情资料，分析气候变化背景下河北省主要气象灾害演变规律，并运用通径分析法，探讨影响主要粮食作物产量的直接影响因子与间接影响因子。结果表明：河北省夏玉米与冬小麦生育期内均呈平均气温升高、降水量增多、日照时数减少的特点，与夏玉米相比，冬小麦生育期内气候条件的变化幅度更大。主要气象灾害中成灾面积最大的是旱灾，其次为风雹灾、水灾、病虫害，冷冻害成灾面积最小。近43年河北省气象灾害总成灾面积呈减少趋势，其中旱灾、病虫害成灾面积减少，风雹灾、水灾、冷冻害的成灾面积增加。通径分析结果显示，影响夏玉米生产的主要气象灾害排序依次为旱灾、病虫害、风雹灾、水灾、冷冻害，影响冬小麦生产的主要气象灾害排序为旱灾、风雹灾、病虫害、水灾、冷冻害；旱灾是影响河北省主要粮食作物生产的主要气象灾害；与冬小麦相比，夏玉米受气象灾害的影响相对较小。

In order to quantitatively analyze agrometeorological disasters affecting the output of main grain crops in Hebei province under the background of climate change and ensure food security, based on the yield data of summer maize and winter wheat in Hebei Province from 1980 to 2022 and the agrometeorological disaster data of the same period, this paper analyzed the evolution law of major agrometeorological disasters in Hebei Province under the background of climate change.The direct and indirect factors affecting the yield of main grain crops were quantitatively analyzed by using path analysis method.The results show that both summer maize and winter wheat in Hebei Province showed the average temperature increased, the precipitation increased and the sunshine hours decreased, compared with summer maize, the variation range of meteorological conditions during the winter wheat growth period was greater.Among the major agrometeorological disasters affecting the production of raw grain crops in Hebei Province, drought is the largest disaster affected local area, followed by wind and hail disaster, flood, disease and insect pests, and freezing disaster affected local area is the smallest.In recent 43 years, the total disaster area of agrometeorological disasters in Hebei Province showed a decreasing trend.With the improvement of irrigation technology and agricultural technology, the disaster area caused by drought, pests and diseases decreased, while the disaster area caused by wind hail, flood and freezing increased.Path analysis results showed that the main agrometeorological disasters affecting summer maize production were drought, pest and disease, wind and hail, flood and freezing.The main agrometeorological disasters affecting winter wheat production were drought, wind and hail, pest and disease, flood and freezing.Drought is main agro meteorological disaster affecting the production of main grain crops in Hebei Province, and compared with winter wheat, summer maize is less affected by agrometeorological disaster.