甘肃科学学报

为合理掌握降雨、库水位波动条件下的滑坡稳定性及其失稳趋势，基于滑坡所处地质条件及发育特征，先利用传递系数法分析降雨、库水位波动对滑坡稳定性的影响规律，再利用支持向量回归机、北方苍鹰算法构建滑坡变形预测模型，并通过变形预测结果评价滑坡的失稳趋势。分析结果表明：滑坡变形特征显著，地表裂缝时有发育，其定量变形监测范围为135.52～260.79 mm,且以滑坡2-2′剖面、前缘的变形量相对更大。经滑坡稳定性评价，2-2′剖面稳定性相对最弱，这与变形特征相符，且“高水位暴雨工况”的稳定性相对最弱，属不稳定～欠稳定状态，“水位变化天然工况”下稳定程度与之相近，因此，降雨、库水位波动是滑坡稳定性的重要影响因素。最后，变形预测结果显示，滑坡后续变形仍会加速发展或维持现状变形特征，稳定性也将趋于不利，建议尽快开展滑坡防治。

In order to reasonably grasp the stability and instability trend of landslides under rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations, based on the geological conditions and development characteristics of the landslides, the transfer coefficient method is first used to analyze the impact of rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations on landslide stability.Then, the support vector regression machine and Northern Goshawk algorithm are used to construct a landslide deformation prediction model, and the instability trend of the landslide is evaluated through the deformation prediction results.The analysis results show that the deformation characteristics of the landslide are significant, and surface cracks are occasionally developed.The quantitative deformation monitoring range is 135.52～260.79 mm, and the deformation at the 2-2′ section and the front edge of the landslide is relatively larger.According to the landslide stability evaluation, the stability at the 2-2′ section is relatively the weakest, which is consistent with the deformation characteristics.The stability under the "high water level rainstorm condition" is relatively the weakest, belonging to the unstable to marginally stable state.The stability under the "water level change natural condition" is similar to it.Therefore, rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations are important factors affecting the stability of the landslide.Finally, the deformation prediction results show that the subsequent deformation of the landslide will continue to accelerate or maintain the current deformation characteristics, and the stability will also tend to be unfavorable.It is recommended to carry out landslide prevention and control as soon as possible.