甘肃科学学报

在气候变化和快速城市化的背景下,洪涝灾害对社会可持续发展带来一定影响,其造成的损失对社会承灾体脆弱性影响显著。以成都市5个中心城区为研究对象,基于VSD评估框架构建社会脆弱性评估模型,并采用熵值法确定权重,综合测算2013年、2018年、2023年各评价单元的暴露性、敏感性、适应能力以及社会综合脆弱性时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)2013—2023年中心城区暴露度、适应能力持续上升,敏感度小幅度下降,社会脆弱性整体持续下降;(2)空间分布差异性显著,高暴露性、高适应能力地区呈现南高北低的特点。最后针对不同地区情况提出改善洪涝社会脆弱性的措施。

Under the background of climate change and rapid urbanization,flood disasters have an impact on the sustainable development of society,and the losses caused by flood disasters are significantly affected by the vulnerability characteristics of social and economic disaster victims.Taking five central urban areas of Chengdu as the research objects,a social vulnerability assessment model was constructed based on the VSD assessment framework,and the entropy method was used to determine the weight.The spatial-temporal changes in exposure,sensitivity,adaptability,and overall social vulnerability for each assessment unit were comprehensively measured for the years 2013,2018 and 2023.The results showed that:(1) From 2013to 2023,the exposure and adaptability of the downtown area continued to increase,the sensitivity did not change significantly,and the overall social vulnerability continued to decline.(2) There were significant differences in spatial distribution,and the regions with high exposure and high adaptability showed the characteristics of high in the south and low in the north.Finally,the shortcomings of the study are discussed,and the measures to improve the social vulnerability to flood are put forward according to the situation of different regions.