甘肃科学学报

为有效掌握边坡成灾演化特征，并实现其高精度变形预测，以边坡地质条件为基础，先开展边坡成灾影响因素及演化过程分析，并结合变形监测结果，通过沙猫群算法和支持向量机开展其变形预测研究。结果表明：边坡成灾的基础因素为地形地貌因素和层岩性因素，诱发因素为降雨因素和坡脚边坡开挖扰动因素，各类因素共同作用造成了边坡成灾；在边坡成灾演化过程中，主要包括斜坡内力平衡打破阶段、边坡体内裂隙体系扩展阶段、边坡体局部失稳阶段、边坡体变形扩展阶段和边坡体整体失稳阶段，总体表现为斜坡内力平衡失稳后，内部微观裂隙从产生到扩展，最终形成宏观变形直至成灾失稳。最后，经变形预测，各监测点预测结果的相对误差均值介于1.98%～2.09%,预测精度较优，验证了预测思路的合理性，且边坡变形总体呈不利加速增加趋势，尤其是边坡前缘变形更为明显，建议尽快开展边坡灾害防治。研究可为边坡灾害防治提供理论支持，具有重要的现实意义。

In order to effectively grasp the evolution characteristics of slope disasters and achieve high-precision deformation prediction, based on the geological conditions of the slope, the influencing factors and evolution process of slope disasters are analyzed in this paper first.Then, combined with deformation monitoring results, deformation prediction research is carried out through sand cat swarm algorithm and support vector machine.The results show that the basic factors causing slope disasters are terrain and lithology factors, while the triggering factors are rainfall and excavation disturbance factors at the footof the slope.Various factors work together to cause slope disasters.In the process of slope disaster evolution, it mainly includes the stage of breaking the internal force balance of the slope, the stage of expanding the crack system inside the slope, the stage of local instability of the slope, the stage of deformation and expansion of the slope, and the stage of overall instability of the slope.The overall manifestation is that due to the instability of the internal force balance of the slope, the internal micro cracks are generated and expanded, and finally form macro deformation until the disaster occurs and becomes unstable.Through deformation prediction, the average relative error of the prediction results at each monitoring point ranged from 1.98% to 2.09%,indicating good prediction accuracy and verifying the rationality of the prediction approach.Moreover, the overall slope deformation tends to accelerate and worsen, especially the deformation at the front edge of the slope, which is more pronounced.It is recommended to carry out slope disaster prevention and control as soon as possible.The results can theoretically support for the prevention and control of slope disasters, which has great practical significance.