甘肃科学学报

为科学、合理地评价应急避难场所适宜性，以服务性、有效性、安全性、可达性4个准则12项评价指标构建适宜性评价体系，基于博弈论思想对改进的层次分析法、反熵权法和加速遗传投影寻踪模型进行组合赋权，结合改进后的有限区间云模型得出应急避难场所评价指标因子确定度，建立博弈论-有限区间云模型，对试验区域39个应急避难场所开展适宜性综合评价。结果表明：层次分析法与反熵权法均得出C1权重最高，分别以D3、B4最低；加速遗传投影寻踪模型以C2权重值最高、A1最低；博弈论组合赋权方法以C2权重值最高、B5最低。对比4种赋权结果可知，博弈论组合赋权可规避单一赋权的主客观偏重弊端，且综合了其余3种方法优势使权重更具合理性与科学性，改进有限区间云模型得出评价等级与现实情况及规划验收等级相符，该理论可为应急避难场所的评价和规划提供参考。

To rationally and scientifically evaluate the suitability of emergency shelters, a suitability evaluation system is constructed with 12 evaluation indicators under four criteria including service, effectiveness, safety and accessibility.Based on game theory, the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process, anti-entropy weight and acceleration genetic array-projection pursuit model are combined forweighting.Combined with the improved finite interval cloud model, the certain degree of the evaluation index factors for emergency shelter is obtained.The suitability of 39 emergency shelters in the test area is comprehensively evaluated based on the game theory-finite interval cloud model.The experimental results show that both the AHP and the anti-entropy weight method yield the highest weight for C1,with the lowest weights for D3 and B4 respectively.The accelerated genetic projection pursuit model yields the highest weight for C2 and the lowest for A1.The game theory combined weighting method yields the highest weight for C2 and the lowest for B5.A comparison of four weighting results shows that the game theory combined weighting method can avoid the subjectivity-objectivity bias of single weighting, synthesizes the advantages of the three methods to make the weights more reasonable and scientific.The evaluation grades obtained by the improved finite interval cloud model are consistent with the actual situation and the planning acceptance grades.This theory can provide some reference and assistance for the evaluation and planning of emergency shelters.